But remember that polls are imperfect tools.

For but one example:

In 1980, Ronald Reagan beat Carter by nearly 10 points, 51 percent to 41 percent. In a Gallup Poll released days before the election on Oct. 27, it was Carter who led Reagan 45 percent to 42 percent.

Here’s another example:

With Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary fast approaching, Sen. Barack Obama has opened a double-digit lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton in the state, a CNN-WMUR poll found Sunday.

Obama, the first-term senator from Illinois who won last week’s Iowa caucuses, led the New York senator and former first lady 39 percent to 29 percent in a poll conducted Saturday and Sunday

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/06/nh.poll/index.html

Thanks, Matt #3.

Shorter Matt: Intrade isn’t a poll

Personally, I’ve got to wonder about the predictive value of a format that gives Hillary Clinton 0.9% at this stage of the game.

I’ve read that the wild card in the polling this year is the growing number of people, predominantly younger voters, who do not have land line phones and are generally not reached by regular pollsters.  Who knows?

Whatever happens, America will contiue to face crisis in every area of our social life. Neither candidate can deliver what we need.  Maranatha!

Kendall, with respect to #1, while polls may be imperfect tools, most politicians, on the other hand, are perfect tools.

I’m assuming that Hillary Clinton is trading at .9 because the contract doesn’t expire until November 4 and nobody holding Clinton “stock” (as it were) can find a sucker to unload it on before then.  So it sits there untraded.

I find intrade fascinating because it doesn’t say what people WANT to happen, but what they THINK will happen.

I’ve read that the wild card in the polling this year is the growing number of people, predominantly younger voters, who do not have land line phones and are generally not reached by regular pollsters.

It is a very, very safe bet that the MTV generation will not be voting for McCain.

It’s FALSE.