Kirk Hadaway’s recent Preliminary report on 2011 Episcopal Church Statistics

Posted by Kendall Harmon

The results are quite different from recent years. Average Sunday attendance (ASA) will show an actual increase in 2011 of less than 1,000 persons. However, since Christmas Eve fell on a Saturday in 2011, this essentially adds an extra Sunday to the count. The same thing happened in 2005, when the decline abated, but did not result in an increase. Adjusting for the “Christmas Eve Effect” results in an adjusted loss of slightly less than 12,000 persons or -1.8%. This is less than half the net and percentage loss experienced in 2010 and the smallest percentage loss in average Sunday attendance since 2002 (adjusting for the Christmas Eve effect in 2005).

In terms of active baptized members, the results are similar to ASA, but there is no Christmas Eve Effect to worry about. In 2011 we expect membership to decline by around 27,000 members, or -1.4%. Again, this decline is the lowest in percentage terms since 2002 and about half the loss the Episcopal Church experienced in 2010 when domestic dioceses declined by 54,436 members (-2.7%).

The financial picture is less positive than hoped, but also shows improvement over 2010.

Read it all.

Filed under: * Anglican - EpiscopalEpiscopal Church (TEC)TEC Data* Christian Life / Church LifeParish MinistryStewardship

4 Comments
Posted June 24, 2012 at 11:15 am [Printer Friendly] [Print w/ comments]



1. Sarah wrote:

. . . “the smallest percentage loss in average Sunday attendance since 2002 . . . “

WE ARE SAVED.  THE EVIL BIGOTED CONSERVATIVES’ PREDICTIONS OF DOOM WERE ENTIRELY WRONG. WE ALWAYS KNEW THAT THERE WERE THOUSANDS OF PROGRESSIVES WHO WOULD WANT TO ENTER OUR CHURCH ONCE THEY REALIZED HOW INCLUSIVE WE REALLY REALLY REALLY ARE.

We are growing, and thriving . . . thriving and growing . . .

[hic!]

June 24, 6:03 pm | [comment link]
2. Paula Loughlin wrote:

Brush aside that ice and bring out the cushions for the deck chairs, it seems the ship is steady on after all.

June 24, 7:43 pm | [comment link]
3. TomRightmyer wrote:

Perhaps all those who are going to walk out have done so, and the losses from here on will be more funerals than baptisms.

June 24, 8:22 pm | [comment link]
4. Statmann wrote:

Dr. Hadaway has produces a timely set of forecasts that will yield good news for the TEC convention. He has used partiaal results of 2011 TEC data for this purpose.  His maun conclusion is that the worst is over for TEC.  Not having 2011 data one must do a time series analysis which deals with Trend, Cycle, Seasonality, and Irregular effects. There are too few years to seel Cycle.  Using annual data reoves Seasonality.  (The Chistmas on Sunday is really an Iregular effect. ) The Ittrgular are also large goups leaving parishes as well as large parts of dioceses leaving.  For 2002 through 2010 data a linear fit provides a Trend line showing the NUMERICAL ASA loss per year.  The fit is good with r-square of .962.  The forecast for 2011 would be a loss of 23,600.  A more logical fit is an exponential which provies a Trend in the PERCENTAGE loss each yeear.  This fit is also good with r-square of .984.  The percentage is 3 percent and the 2011 is 20,300.  BUT if the Irregular effects have ended, then they are both too large. Given his access to 2011 data, I am confident that Dr. Hadaway is much closer to the correct forecast. For now I would use a percentage loss of 2 percent.  As for the 1 percent increase in Plate & Pledge on emust recognize that the CPI increased 3 percent in 2011, hence leaving TEC with a 2 percent decline in inflation adjusted income.  Statmann

June 25, 8:04 pm | [comment link]
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