I suspect that Afghanistan lacks two things that are needed for effective self-government.  One is a stable infrastructure of roads and communication.  The terrain of Afghanistan is too sparsely settled, too large, and too rugged for that to happen easily or soon.

The other is an a whole set of attitudes by the population that respects votes, will not expect or participate in bribes, favors, and other elements of what one might call rule by personal relationship.  The nation is very tribal; everyone expects connections to be more important than laws.  Such rule has generally been fairly effective when Afghanistan was not a nation “in play” by international powers or for international concerns.

However, such rule cannot make the nation whole or governed by law.  Such rule by personality and personal loyalty leaves the door wide open for warlords, etc, to take in terrorist leaders who can supply things the warlords want or need, a situation exacerbated by the lack of infrastructure.  The Afghan government has not been able to stamp out opium poppy production, let alone the harboring of terrorists or of Taliban.

We have a choice: pour tons of money and personnel into Afghanistan in an effort to use the COIN strategy, or get out altogether.  Getting out would save many lives right now, as well as a lot of money.  However, giving room to the Taliban or to terrorist leadership will not save us anything in the long run. We will simply suffer later - and most likely right here at home, or at least in the West at large.

We are between the devil and the deep blue sea.

Our own democracy (Republic) was created from the bottom up.  It began with local villages & cities, then territories or states, then a Federal govt.  Planting a democracy in reverse order is just nuts.

The awfulness of war is the death of innocent victims, not the death of murderers & terrorists.  Yet this “war” is ridiculous in its Political Correctness.  Our Rules of Engagement require announcing to villages and towns WHEN our soldiers will be coming to search for the enemy and other such idiotic nonsense.  We need to allow our military to pursue and kill terrorists and if innocent people are also lost, that is the cost of war. ——OR we should withdraw our troops and just bomb the hell out of places where terrorists are known to be.

Of course America is out of money to pay for COIN. It’s all been wasted on TARP.