I believe it was publicly reported that overall TEC ASA (inclusive, presumably, of the overseas diocese) was 747,376 in 2008.  Does anyone have a more recent idea of that number?  I have heard that when adjusted for departing parishes and diocese which have remained on the roles, as well allowing for some puffery in attendance numbers, the actual number is now believed to be less than 700,000.  Does anyone have an idea?

I’m sure Dan Martins and I could come up with background info to flesh this out.  However, the bottom line is that Oregon has been able to maintain an atmosphere of All is Well for a long time.  Such a slight and gradual decline will not be a great awakener for people in the pew.  With a new bishop there will be a slight surge, too, to interest and commitment to make things keep working.  What should be noted is the trend.  Despite keeping things status quo, the ASA decline is still visible statistically.  Even more telling, though, is the decline in membership, with a recent rally only surrounding the election of Bp Itty; that didn’t stop the trend, though.  Urgency has not been developed, and I hate to say probably will not be fostered for a couple of years.  Perhaps the new bishop will make that a priority - as long as it includes being honest and frank about why a decline over the last 10 years, especially, but also the general decline since 1964..

There are two dioceses in Oregon: Oregon and (its poor relative) Eastern Oregon. For 2002 through 2008 Oregon lost 8.5 percent of Members, 10.4 percent of ASA, and 4.4 percent of Plate & Pledge in inflation adjusted dollars. For Eastern Oregon the data were Members down 23.4 percent, ASA down 3.9 percent and a small increase of 0.2 percent for Plate & Pledge. Both dioceses are aging with 234 Infant Baptisms and 326 Burials for Oregon (2008) and 38 and 51 for Eastern Oregon. But for church size and money Oregon is well ahead. In 2008 Oregon had 25 of its 74 churches with Plate & Pledge over $150K. Not good, but Eastern Oregon had only 2 of its 22 churches with over $150K. And in 2008 Oregon had 40 of its 74 churches with ASA of 70 or less (and 12 of these 40 had ASA of 20 or less) while Eastern Oregon had 19 of its 22 churches with ASA of 70 or less and 5 of these 19 with ASA of 20 or less. If you combine the two dioceses you have 59 of its 96 churches with ASA of 70 or less and 27 of its 96 churches with Plate & Pledge of more than $150K. This means for the entire State there are three “poor” churches for each “rich” church to help. A “shotgun wedding” for these two dioceses appears to be very logical. Statmann

For pendennis88: When the 2009 data are published I feel quite positive that ASA will fall below 700K, given that the actual status of Fort Worth, Quincy, and Pittsburgh will be reflected. I don’t think that this threshold will shock TEC. The real item is Members. It will be VERY close as to whether Members (USA only) will fall below 2 million. Your question raises something that has puzzled me since GC 2009: has there been any large sized departures from TEC since then? Was the PB correct when she stated that the worst is over for TEC? Will the 2009 TEC data cast any light on this subject? Good questions. Wish I had a more informed answers.  Statmann

Thanks to Statmann for adding more data once again.  I especially appreciate your calling attention to how many churches are below the $150K threshold necessary to keep a fulltime priest.  Eastern Oregon is indeed extremely small and weak, but I still find it mindboggling that there can be a diocese with only 22 congregations, 19 of which have an ASA of 70 or less.  There must be lots of Roman Catholic parishes in Oregon that are bigger than that miniscule TEC diocese.

FWIW, Oregon has long had the reputation of being one of the most “unchurched” and neo-pagan states in the US.

David Handy+

If the Episcopal denomination flounders in liberal Oregon, how can it expect to do well in states like Mississippi when the conservatives are pushed out?

The diocese of Oregon deserves to die an ugly death for its sacrilege of appointing Marcus Borg as its “canon theologian” at the diocesan cathedral.

At Oregon/Eastern Oregon I have plotted the ASA and population of both dioceses from 1992 through 2008. (As a disclaimer, when I broke the state into dioceses, the dividing line is the summit of the Cascade mountains, which I kind of had to guess at.)

The vast majority of the population is in the Diocese of Oregon. They had a few good years from 1999-2003. Their share of the population has declined from 0.30% in 1992 to 0.21% of the population in 2008.

Eastern Oregon has been much up and down—did well in late 1990s, even relative to their population. E. Oregon has fallen from 0.32% to 0.24% between 1992 and 2008. (Between 1997 and 2001 they increased from 0.26% to 0.30%, but since then it’s been a decline.)

#4 - I don’t think so, but have heard from some in some TEC diocese that it is not churches leaving now, but ASA falling at small and mid-size parishes.  While the incumbents of the pulpits would variously disagree with whether they were doing anything wrong, I believe they would point to the bad publicity surrounding the episcopal church as hurting their efforts to attract and retain new members, which when combined with the aging of their congregations, is bad indeed.  (You don’t have to be orthodox to get a negative impression of a church that likes to sue its members.)

#8 Thank you for your input. Sounds right to me given the paucity of news on this subject.  Statmann

Eastern Oregon was established as a Missionary District (read “diocese) by General Convention for October, 1907, partitioned from the Diocese of Oregon which was the entire state at that point (but had itself been part of a Northwest missionary district).  The question of whether or not to reunite has been raised many times over the years.
Canonically, Eastern Oregon could easily be “un-partitioned” back into Oregon.  But, within the current diocesan model, not without a bishop who could fly him or herself and plan on pastoral visits no more than once every two years, or two bishops with separate areas of coverage.
Oregon has been a conservative state, but with an entrepeneurially independent spirit.  Then western Oregon got californicated in the late 60’s and 70’s by (on separate tracks) flower power and real estate cash.  To understand the politics (and often the theology) you have to understand one layer on top of the other.

Post a Suffragan with low pay and no staff in Eastern Oregon. Furnish him/her a horse to keep the Greens happy. Centralize all diocesan administration in Portland. With only 22 churches s/he would have to make only about two visits a month.  Statmann

These Episcopal data are interesting, but they lack context.  It would help to be able to place them against data on other denominations in the same locales.

Stats,
Except for the Greens (bunch of wheat farmers and cattle ranchers out there in E.O., except for Bend), I think you’ve described the first bishop of Oregon.
Obviously, a non-current-traditional model is going to be needed in E.O. Or not.
:^ )

Because comments on the later post on New Jersey have been closed, I’l stick this on the tail end of this one. Data on the Episcopal Church are a bit interesting, I guess, but they dont’ mean much if one can’t discern whether this is a phenomenon confined to TEC or whether it is part of a larger trend.  I tried (briefly) to see if I could find apples to apples stats for other Protestant denominations in similar geographies.  My results were a bit skimpy, but I did find data that indicate the Presbyterians and Methodists in overlapping geographies are experiencing similar downturns in attendance.  What should we make of that?  Are these declining ASA figures peculiar to the Episcopal Church?  Do they reflect failures of leadership or doctrine not found elsewhere in American Christian circles?  Or do they simply reflect the growth of other types of religious affiliations within Christianity? 

I have no idea.  But I would think that simply posting a diocese-by-diocese recitation of these statistics for the Episcopal Church tells us very little about things we need to know unless the problem is statistically demonstrable to be limited to the Episcopal Church.

NoVA,
What made you think any different?  It is well documented, and discussed on this weblog that all the “mainline” denominations are showing the same decline, and this decline has been going on since the mid-1960’s.  The mainline doing the best job of trying to halt the decline is the Methodists; the worst are one of the Presby variants, the UCC, and TECUSA.
There has been one lone voice within the TECUSA office building in New York warning of the consequences of a relatively un-checked measurable annual decline in both ASA and membership #‘s, and that is Kirk Hadaway.  He has been attempting to point out to the Presiding Bishop and Executive Council exactly the same stats that are being displayed by Canon Harmon on his weblog, diocese by diocese, province by province.  Why would Haddaway do that with Exec Council, accompanied by somewhat ominous commentary?  To show that all is not well, and TECUSA is NOT IMMUNE from the same statistics as other mainlines.  Same here.  It makes no difference in terms of the need for proper evangelism tied with right doctrine if all of the mainlines are declining, or if only TECUSA is declining.  It is a false reassurance simply to say, “It’s happening not just to us, but to everyone”; it is sinful complacency to say, “It is simply a phenomenon of our times”, and not be concerned about each of those walking away who had been entrusted to our pastoral care.